Backtests

Backtest mode in the Strategy tab runs the simulation engine over historical data using your current draft strategy configuration. It is how you evaluate a change before deploying it.

A backtest is a historical simulation and an approximation — it is not a prediction and not a guarantee of future results. The report is deliberately honest about its own limits (see below).

Running a backtest

  1. Pick a date window. It defaults to the trailing 30 days.
  2. The run uses your draft strategy configuration, so configure the strategy first in Tune.
  3. Submit the run. It moves through queued and running and then shows a report. The panel updates on its own as the run progresses.

Credits

When the credit system is enabled, each run costs credits and your current balance is shown above the form:

  • If your balance is short, the form says how many credits the run needs. When top-ups are available, a Buy credits button starts a checkout; otherwise it explains that top-ups are not available right now.
  • Credits may be replenished on a recurring basis when that is configured.
  • A failed run is automatically refunded — you are not charged credits for a run that did not complete.

When the credit system is not enabled, runs do not cost credits.

The report

A completed report is laid out so nothing is hidden:

  • Report warnings first — any honesty caveats about the run (for example, where settlement was approximated) are shown at the top, above every metric.
  • Summary tiles — the run can surface figures such as EV per contract, win rate, max drawdown, and net P&L for the simulated window, along with the clip size those totals are based on. A metric the run does not have is simply omitted rather than shown as zero.
  • Per-band and per-hour breakdowns — tables of the same figures split by probability band and by hour.
  • Raw report — the full underlying report is always available to expand.

A failed run shows its error message and, when a credit was charged, a note that it has been refunded.

Evidence for deploying

Deploying a structural strategy change goes through the evidence gate. A completed backtest of that exact composition satisfies the gate, so the Deploy button shows a "Backtested ✓" note. If a run leaned mostly on approximation, the note says so.

Faster preview

For an instant, free preview of a threshold change — without spending a run — use What-if replay on the canvas.